Gold Is Heading for a Major Bull Market Soon

By Michael Fung


Gold like a commodity or for a precious metal has maintained its allure, but there was a time when it absolutely was languishing at a price range of about $255 to $290 for quite some time, and was considered an investment with small returns. It faced stiff resistances at the range between $290-300, then at $400 and ordinarily held within this band and ceiling, and retracing, despite a perpetual scarcity of production from its principal deliver in Africa.

All this has reversed considerably when it broke this resistance level earlier in 2002, and prices have shot up more than double over a few years to about $625-$650 an oz.! This extraordinary shift commenced when gold broke its resistance at $300 dollars and has not reappeared at that price level again. The real truth is, the price floor over previous ten years was $300.65. It stayed really quietly among $300 and $400 for almost twelve months in-between, and was hovering about its 200 day moving average for quite a long time, irritating a good deal of traders by shifting on top of and beneath the moving average.

It showed strength when it broke key resistances as well as its 200-day moving average on higher volumes in July 2004 to move past $400. It gained momentum, and began to show break-out signals sometime in October 2005. Prices hit $500 in December, where a lot of people booked profits, and this allowed the price to steady for a month or so. 2006 saw a near vertical rise for gold on very high volumes, with gold hitting $700 and then making a high of $725.75 in May 2006, just before the liquidity crisis hit world markets.

A long correction followed, which was inevitable after such a steep and swift rise, and gold retraced to 50% of it rise. This fall was steady, and prices moved down to $575 levels till October 2006. It is here that they stabilized and then continued its bull run to a point where gold now trades at $1500-$1650 levels in the past twelve months.

Investors faced many global issues during this time, as the U.S. was dealing with the Iraq issue, Israel invaded Lebanon, North Koreans fired rockets as well as a nuclear bomb, and with a nuclear confrontation with Iran, and recently with the Euro debt crisis. With uncertain events like these, gold did quite well and served its role as a safe haven. Despite all this, on a year to year basis, gold is still much higher.

Gold bullion and gold coins now seems to be getting ready for another long-term secular bull market. Whichever way you see it, gold has a good run in the past ten years, and it is currently consolidating , ready for the next bull run to head for newer highs in the next few years.




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